We are so used to ‘Low birth rate’(a social phenomenon in which the overall fertility rate decreases with fewer children) and ‘Population aging’(an increase in the proportion of the elderly in the total population). Recently, a banner celebrating a baby born in two years was hung in a village.
How has the population of our country changed? Let's look at the population changes and consider the impact that population change has had on us.
Population Changes in Korea
According to the 2022 Population and Housing Census released by Statistics Korea, Korea's total population dropped to 51.69 million in November last year, down 0.1% from the previous year. Korea’s total population has declined for two consecutive years in 2022. This is the second time since 2021 that the country’s population has shrunk. Due to the low birth rate, the youth population(those who are under the age of 15) fell 3.7% from a year ago to 5.86 million. On the other hand, the number of people aged 65 or older increased by 5.1% from the previous year to 9.14 million. The elderly population also accounted for 18.1% of the total population, up 11.7%p from 2020. Until 2017, the number of young adults and the number of the elderly was similar, but now the elderly population is more than 1.5 times higher than the youth.
How do these population changes affect our lives?
What we can feel is an increase in the burden of the old-age dependency ratio. As the proportion of the elderly population increased, the old-age dependency ratio, which measures the number of elderly people to be supported per 100 people of working age, increased to 24.9. This means that 100 people in the 15-64 age group(working age group) have to support 24.9 elderly people. The elderly population, which accounts for 18.1% of Korea's total population, will account for 46.4% by 2070, nearly half of the population. As a result, there is a more aging population than the economically active population.
In addition, the degree of mismatch distribution of population among urban and rural areas is severe. The population around the capital area was 26.124 million people, accounting for 50.5% of the total population. More than one in two people live in the capital area. On the other hand, many provinces are on the verge of population extinction. In 2000, none of the 228 local governments nationwide were at risk of extinction. However, now, 118 local governments, more than half (51.8%) of all, are classified as ‘risk areas of extinction’. More than one-fifth (51 places) belong to ‘high-risk areas of extinction’.
In Jeollabuk-do, 13 out of 14 local governments are at risk of extinction, excluding Jeonju. In Gangwon(88.9%), Gyeongbuk(87.0%), Jeonnam(81.8%), and Chungnam(80.0%), more than 80% of local governments are at risk of extinction.
Decreasing School-age Population & Changes in Education
As mentioned earlier, the school-age population(those people aged 6 to 21) is decreasing. According to Statistics Korea’s data, the school-age population was 9.181 million in 2014, but it dropped to 7.482 million in 2022 and 7.259 million in 2023. In addition, according to the Korea Institute for Curriculum and Evaluation’s report, Sejong is the only school-age population growth area in Chungcheong Province. Except for Sejong, the school-age population of elementary, middle, and high schools in Daejeon, Chungbuk, and Chungnam will fall by 352,411 in 2040 from 578,031 in 2020. In particular, the number of elementary, middle, and high school students in Daejeon is expected to be 92,611 in 2040, with a decrease rate of 44.4% compared to 2020.
The decrease in the school-age population caused a change in the educational field.
Some schools use unused space as an activity space for students due to the decrease in the school-age population. Busan Il Science High School in Saha-gu promoted the spatial innovation of a school cafeteria considering the increase in unused space in schools. In the cafeteria, culture & art performance stages and terrace tables are installed to promote communication with school members.
There is also an opinion that the decrease in the number of students per class improves the quality of public education. The Jeonnam Office of Education started to strengthen the educational power of small schools with less than 60 students. It plans to support students so that they receive high-quality education specialized for their individual growth through educational programs such as a teacher system dedicated to basic academic achievement and growth classes running a learning, emotional and psychological support program.
Furthermore, regional gaps in the school-age population cause some problems. In 2020, in Chungbuk, the gap in the school-age population between Danyang(2,348) and Cheongju(99,544) was about 42.5 times. And, in 2040, the gap will widen by about 57 times between Danyang(1,104) and Cheongju(63,216).
In addition, there are elementary schools with zero first graders. There are elementary schools in 17 metropolitan and provincial education offices across the country with ‘0’ new students this year from the preliminary call date last month and reached 147 places(including branch schools). Last year, there were 121 elementary schools with no actual students enrolled, but this is an increase of 20 more. Gyeongbuk has the most with 32. In addition, it was followed by Jeonnam(30 places), Jeonbuk-Gangwon(more than 20 places), Gyeongnam(18 places), Chungbuk(12 places), Chungnam(9 places), Gyeonggi (3 places), and Incheon(2 places).
Schools are being merged and closed in areas where the school-age population has decreased. In June last year, Podam Elementary School, which merged three elementary schools, opened in Yeongjung-myeon, Pocheon. The Pocheon Office of Education established a new school by uniting three elementary schools at risk of closing.
The Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education also introduced the Seoul-type integrated operation school, ‘E-eum(connected) School’. Based on the number of students and changing local conditions, this new school model involves merging schools of different levels to share material and human resources. Since the opening of Seoul Haenuri Elementary and Middle E-eum(connected) Schools in March 2019, several schools have been merged as an E-eum School.
In contrast, urban education has been tremendously impacted by overcrowded schools. In Gyeonggi-do, 47.3% of elementary schools in Hanam and 46.5% in Gimpo were surveyed as overcrowded schools. To solve this problem, the government has devised alternatives such as modular classrooms, expansion of classrooms, and establishment of new schools.
The direction of our society
Then, how should we accept the changes we face? It is necessary to establish a social system that can accommodate population change.
First, we need economic improvements. In order to solve social issues such as population concentration in urban areas and the decline of the school-age population due to low birthrates, job creation for local workers is required. According to a survey of 1,000 residents outside the capital area by the Federation of Korean Industries, 71.2% said the local economy will be worse this year than last year. 72.0% thought it would lead to a huge loss of jobs. Furthermore, 41.1% said they hope to leave their residence and move to the capital area in the future, with 20s the most(64.4%). Poor job conditions accounted for the most at 47%, the reason for hope of moving. These results show that it is necessary to prepare for local job creation. By achieving economic growth through revitalizing the local economy, the population problem in Korea would ease.
In June, the government launched a new team on population policy amid the alarmingly low birthrate to strengthen inter-ministry ties. The team plans to discuss major agendas and solve tasks in four areas: a low birth rate, an aging society, a reduced society, and the reduction of the economically active population.
In addition, the government introduced a new population concept, ‘living population’, which considers not only the ‘settled population’ but also those who visit and stay in a specific region for any purpose. That is, the ‘living population’ is a concept that defines the population as not only the sedentary population but also those who stay in the area for commuting, schooling, touring, and so on. The concept is introduced to enhance regional vitality and effectively respond to local extinction. In a situation where the resident registration population growth is limited, the living population has an effect of raising the socio-economic vitality of the region.
Moreover, it is necessary to prepare in the educational field for the decrease in the school-age population. Let's look at the case of Japan.
Similar to Korea, Japan has had a problem of decreasing the school-age population. The Japanese government began to merge schools and establish base schools to combine elementary and middle schools or social welfare facilities. Based on Smart education such as ICT technology, the government tried to make up for the quality of education in integrated schools. And by expanding support for local schools, the government actively induces urban students to study in rural areas. Through these policies, Japan wanted to narrow the educational gap between urban and rural areas and prevent local extinction. As such, Korea should also make efforts to narrow the learning gap and improve the overall quality of education.
If such population changes, such as a low birthrate and an aging society, are inevitable, our society must adjust accordingly. What kind of efforts should we make in our community? And what kind of attitude should we have in the field of education? As the population problem is severe, we need to pay attention. As prospective teachers, we can try to provide high-quality education by adapting to changes in education according to population changes.