[Vol.87] A Sad Tragedy: The War between Ukraine and Russia

Many countries are paying sharp attention to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. What happens there? The picture above describes the war between Russia and Ukraine. On Sunday, February 20th - two days after the closing ceremony of the Beijing Olympics - Putin approved the independence of the People’s Republic of Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republic, which are pro-Russian in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Then Russia was guaranteed promises for two republics to cooperate with them.

In addition, after these independence approvals, Russia arranged Russian peacekeeping troops in the Donbas region and prepared for the invasion. Finally, on February 24th, Russia began to attack major cities, including the capital city of Kiev and the port city of Mikolife, under the pretext of maintaining peace and protecting the residents of the Donbas region. In particular, Russia pinpoints attacked Ukraine’s military facilities, and the invasion began in earnest.

So what made Russia, Being such a large country, invade Ukraine? First, it is involved with Ukraine’s accession to NATO. What is NATO? NATO (North Atlantic Treatment Organization) was established to prevent Soviet communism back then. Despite the collapse of the Soviet Union, the organization continued to make new countries near the Russian border join in. Now, only Ukraine, Belarus, and Finland, which share the Russian border, are the only countries not being member nations of NATO.

In this situation, if Ukraine joins NATO, military facilities and troops could be deployed right in front of Russia. That is why Russia must prevent Ukraine from joining NATO by all means including invasion. However, Ukraine, which underwent events such as the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, wanted to join NATO and get

protected by the international society because its territory continues to be threatened by Russia. Since Ukraine has tried to enter NATO, Russia had to stop it even though it was not in a peaceful manner. Second, Ukraine plays a significant role in connecting Russia and Europe. In other words, for Russia to expand its influence in Europe, it is best to control Ukraine. Ukraine is a country that has excellent geographical and political significance to Russia.

So, is Russia only to blame for this invasion? There were some unfair aspects to Russia. When breaking down the Berlin Wall in 1989, West Germany and the United States promised NATO would not branch out into Eastern Germany. Nevertheless, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic started to join NATO in 1999, and countries such as Bulgaria also entered it in 2004. Since then, Ukraine has continued wanting to join NATO, so Russia started to deal with it. For this reason, Russia has invaded Ukraine, demanding that Ukraine signs up a document to refuse accession to NATO.

Until now, we looked into the Russia and Ukraine situation and why it happened. Then how did the crisis affect international society? At first, the United States imposed sanctions on Northstream-2 AG, a gas pipeline business that connects Russia and Germany. This is a business owned by the Russian gas company Gazprom, so it seems to take a toll only on Russia. Second, countries included in the FDPR(Foreign Direct Product Rules), the EU(European Union), Australia, Japan, and Korea have restricted exports to Russia. The FDPR is a restriction that lets the U.S. government control exports of products made by foreign companies outside the U.S. if they use U.S. software or technology. Korea became an FDPR exemption country on March 4th. This means that the Korean government can control exports to Russia by itself. The current Korean government said we will participate in the movement by limiting PC and semiconductor exports to Russia. Now, diverse international sanctions are imposed on Russia.

Then, how will these movements affect Korea? First of all, Russia is the country most affected by these sanctions, but Korea is also involved to some degree. Major companies such as Lotte and Samsung, which have been investing in Russian facilities since 2008, are affected. Those Korean companies that have depended on imports suffer much more from a depreciation of the Russian currency, the ruble, and export restrictions. Aside from this, since Russia designates Korea as an ‘unfriendly’ country, it imposed sanctions against those Korean companies.

Russia is Korea’s top 10 trading partner and Korean exports were about $9.98 billion last year, accounting for 1.6 percent of Korea’s total exports. In addition, imports were about $17.457 billion, accounting for about 2.8 percent of imports. However, the deficit has already reached $6.569 billion this year due to this situation. So the war has a strong influence on Korean imports and exports.

Russia is also a country that produces, distributes, and sells natural gas and crude oil.

However, as long as South Korea joins Russia’s sanctions, oil and gas prices can soar because of Russian retaliation against Korea. Thus, the wars between Ukraine and Russia are not only affecting each other but also affecting the international economy, including Korea.

In addition, the invasion of Russia can also affect the national security of our country. Unless the war between Ukraine and Russia escalates to a nuclear war, it will not directly affect Korea’s national security. But we have to pay attention to the indirect impact, especially about North Korea. South Korea and the United States have been trying hard to denuclearize North Korea. However, the invasion of Ukraine and Russia could be a major obstacle to North Korea’s denuclearization. In order to protect their own country, North Korea would not give up its nuclear weapons-an adequate reason not to give up the powerful weapons. Russia’s invasion does not directly impact Korea’s security, but it can have a significant effect indirectly.