[Vol.84] Vanishing Country, Korea

 Since the 2000s, falling birth rates in South Korea have emerged as a serious social problem. The birth rate hit a record low of 0.84 in the second quarter of this year. The number of babies born in January to June this year was about 140 thousand, down 9.9 percentage points from the previous year. Last year, the National Statistical Office forecasted that the total fertility rate would rebound after falling to 0.86 in 2021. But in the aftermath of the COVID-19, the total fertility rate is expected to reach about 0.8. As of 2018, the lowest birthrate number of OECD countries excluding Korea was 1.26 (Spain). Why is Korea the only country with such a birth rate?

 Korea's population increased sharply in the 1960s. Government has been trying to lower the birth rate by implementing birth control policies. But since the 2000s, declining birth rates have become a serious social problem. In 2000, the number of births increased slightly due to the celebrate millennium, but then dropped to unbelievable levels by the next 20 years. About 1.0 birth rate can be regarded as a natural phenomenon experienced by all developed countries, but near-zero birth rate is considered unusual.

 According to Economic Self-Reliance and Dating of Youth in Korea and Japan (Jo Sung-ho, 2018), the unmarried rate of Japanese "Satori Generation" men was 72.8 percent for 25-29 years old and 47.3 percent for 30-34 years old, while the unmarried rate of Korean "N-Po Generation" men was 90 percent for 25-29 years old and 56 percent  for 30-34.

 To stem the decline, the South Korean government has spent a total of 185 trillion won since 2006 to carry out three-time basic plans for a low birth rate and an aged society. But the birth rate is still falling. Of course, the government's policies have not been ineffective at all. According to Lee Cheol-hee, a professor of economics at Seoul National University, the birth rate of married persons has risen sharply since 2005, and if the birth rate of married persons had not risen at all, the total fertility rate would have fallen to 0.73 in 2016. Prof. Lee, however, argued that even if the policy to increase the birth rate of married persons worked, the decrease in unmarried persons could lead to a reduction in the proportion of married persons. The increase in childbirth grant, the increase in nursery facilities, and the rise in housing prices mean that the ratio of marriages has decreased, even if the birth rate of married persons has been increased. Therefore, Prof. Lee suggested that unmarried persons should also be considered in the low birthrate policy. The number of marriages in Korea has fallen more than 100,000 over the past two decades, falling short of 240,000 in 2019, compared with 360,000 in 1999. So why is the marriage rate in Korea getting lower?

 According to the Youth Perception of Non-marriage and Countermeasures against Low Birthrate, unlike women who delay marriage because they can't meet their ideal spouses, men tend to delay marriage as the burden on family support increases as they become in their 30s. In particular, "because of the economic burden" accounted for the largest proportion of 48.5 (a total of 300%) when both men and women combined the first, second, and third places. Considering the results of the marriage recognition survey of unmarried men and women conducted by Choi In-Cheol, a psychology professor at Seoul National University, and the Duo Human Life Research Institute, as of the end of 2010, women's economic ability is considered a top priority when choosing their spouses, it is believed to have a significant impact on delaying the marriage of financial burden to women who have not met their spouses. So what support is needed to advance the marriage and raise the marriage rate?

 According to an earlier study, the young and unmarried people generally perceived housing measures as more helpful than job measures in advancing the marriage period, and among the housing measures, the degree of support for stable housing measures for newlyweds was higher. However, due to the recent trend of COVID-19 and the worsening economy, the unemployment rate for those aged 25-29 hit 10.2 percent, marking the first time in history that apartment prices in the Seoul metropolitan area have also been rising. In Seoul, the average price of 34 pyeong apartments in all 25 districts surpassed 600 million won, according to KB Kookmin Bank's market price statistics.

 To curb this rise in real estate prices, the government is offering various benefits to homeless people, along with a multi-homeowner regulation policy. In particular, the housing subscription system that entitles people with certain requirements to subscribe to apartments that are sold at the same time through subscription-related deposits has become a hot topic recently. However, this year, the lowest subscription value based on the exclusive area of 84m^2 of apartments in Seoul is 64 points, which is very difficult to achieve only when they marry in their 20s and achieve 10 years of no-home, 10 years of subscription, and 6 dependents on the date of their marriage.

 In fact, the decline in birth rates is a natural phenomenon in developed countries and is a very difficult problem to solve. Overseas cases that have recovered their birth rates, such as Germany and France, are often recovering from the birth rate of new migrants as they accept overseas immigrants rather than raising the birth rate of their own people. Some also say that Korea should have a smaller population because of its high population density. However, the declining birthrate is a matter of concern for us as it has problems that not only lead to a shrinking population but also a rapid transition to an ageing society.